Ranking the World Cup Qualifying Groups

Qualifying for the World Cup isn’t fair and it’s not supposed to be.  If the idea was to collect the best 32 teams in the world, the distribution of qualifying spots among continents would be much different.

But what so many people love, and FIFA recognizes this, is that the World Cup is supposed to celebrate world soccer not the best teams in the world.  As a result, World Cup qualifying is designed to almost guarantee that teams that wouldn’t otherwise qualify from less potent soccer regions are included in the competition.  

The side effect of this is that qualifying for the World Cup is far more difficult in some regions than others.  Here’s one man’s interpretation of the difficulty of each region, hardest to easiest:

1. South America

Number of spots: 5.5

Top competition: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay

Bottom Line: Absolutely brutal qualification process.  Each team plays each other twice home and away.  Top 5 teams are in.  The sixth team plays a two leg playoff with the fifth place Asian finisher. Qualifying begins over two and a half years before the finals.  Rivalries are fierce and away wins are hard to come by.

2.       Europe

Number of spots: 13

Top Competition: Croatia, Denmark, England, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Italy, Germany, Ireland, Russia, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, Serbia, Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Sweden

Bottom Line: Europe receives by far the most qualifying spots but for good reason.  Each qualifying group typically has two quality teams, leaving little room for Cinderella teams to make the World Cup from Europe.

3.       Africa

Number of Spots: 5

Top Competition: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon

Bottom Line: 52 are eligible to qualify from Africa, only 5 make it.  Africa is becoming an increasingly competitive continent and the qualifying structure is no joke.  Teams are forced to win a group stage, then win a home-away playoff to qualify.

4.       CONCACAF

 Number of Spots: 3.5

Top Competition: Mexico, United States

Bottom Line:

Very similar to the Asian qualifying structure where top teams do not need to win anything in order to qualify.  In the final stage between the top six teams, a team can finish third and still qualify.  Competition falls off steeply after USA and Mexico and makes this largely a competition for the final 1.5 spots.

5.       Asia

Number of Spots: 4.5

Top Competition: Japan, South Korea, Australia

Bottom Line: The qualifying structure heavily protects the top teams.  A team like Japan that gets an automatic bye into the third round can finish runner up in the third and fourth rounds and still qualify for the World Cup.  Also, any qualifying structure that gives North Korea a bye into the third round cannot be considered terribly competitive.

6. Oceania

Number of spots: 0.5

Top Competition

Bottom Line: Why this region is not combined with Asia and/or CONCACAF is unclear to me.  The opportunity to play weaker competition for a two leg crap shoot against the 4^th place CONCACAF team is a gift to all of these countries and a disservice to the quality of CONCACAF teams.

Anyone rank them differently?

Three Things Brek Shea Will Need to Succeed in Europe

Throughout the week, rumors have grown that top English Premier League clubs including Liverpool and Manchester City have been tracking United States international and FC Dallas winger Brek Shea.  The possibility of such a high-profile move for the 21-year old is an exciting possibility for American soccer fans. 

Seeing an American consistently compete for league titles and regularly play deep into the Champions League would be a first for American soccer and indeed a major step forward.  To be sure, Shea is the most electrifying talent to be produced by the country in recent years.  The lanky midfielder possesses a willingness and ability to take on defenders that is rare in American soccer.

Shea would not be the first American to be lured overseas, nor will he be the last. But as the Americans that have gone before him have proved, a move from the MLS to a top-notch European club is no easy task.  Shea would be wise consider the experiences of countrymen abroad before agreeing to a move.  Three major things he’ll need to succeed come to mind:

Maturity

Case in Point: At age 17, Landon Donovan joined German club Bayer Leverkusen as a highly-touted prospect.  Donovan’s stay at the club was turbulent and unproductive as he struggled to adjust to life in a foreign country at such a young age.  He left the club in 2001 for the MLS having failed to establish himself in Germany.  He would later say, “I recognize Leverkusen wasn't the problem, I was…I just wasn't ready for it."

Lesson to be learned: Making a successful switch to Europe is as much a personal and emotional challenge as it is a test of soccer skill.  Even though Landon Donovan is arguably the most talented American soccer player ever, his undoing was his lack of preparedness for such a cultural and personal change. 

Playing Time

Case in Point: The fierce competition for playing time in top European clubs has detoured the careers of numerous American hopefuls.  Most notably, Jozy Altidore signed with Villarreal in 2008, representing a unique opportunity for an American to make an impression in La Liga.  Unfortunately, having to compete with top attacking players like Guiseppe Rossi and Joseba Llorente at Villarreal, Alitdore struggled to distinguish himself amongst such stiff competition.  Altidore made only 9 appearances for Villarreal before leaving the club on a series of loans.

Lesson to be Learned: Making a move to a top club is great but only if you can secure regular playing time at the club.  Shea should to consider who he’ll be competing with for a spot in the starting eleven.  Without consistent playing time, players’ confidence and form suffers.

Skill

Case in Point: In 2007, American phenom Freddy Adu left Real Salt Lake for Portuguese power Benfica.  At the time, Adu was praised as the next great American soccer talent and perhaps the greatest ever.  Since the move, Adu has for played for five other clubs in five countries, and perceptions about the level of talent Adu possesses have changed.  Adu is a very skilled player and is reemerging as an American international.  But in retrospect, the hype surrounding Adu in 2007 appears to have been misplaced.

Lesson to be Learned: Shea has proved himself to be a force to be reckoned with at the club and international level.  But what Adu’s foray into Europe demonstrates is that a tremendous amount of skill is needed to succeed at top clubs.  We probably won’t know if Shea possesses that level of skill until he tests himself abroad.

Shea will need each of these things if he is to succeed at a top European club.  Signing with a team like Liverpool or Manchester City would be a thrilling opportunity, but also one fraught with pitfalls.

How to Rescue Fantasy Soccer

I’m a huge fan of all fantasy sports.  For better or for worse, they make watching just about anything more interesting.  Hell, Grantland has a Fantasy Reality TV League where team owners select reality TV stars and get points for how much their “players” cry, hook up, fight, and abuse drugs. 

I’m not sure if fantasy sports simply make sports more interesting because they get us to root for teams and players we wouldn’t otherwise support or if they appeal to an inner-gambling problem in all of us.  Either way, there is something inherently entertaining about fantasy sports.

Having said that, there is a glaring weakness in fantasy soccer.  Many people love soccer because it is so different than American sports.  Other people hate it for this same reason.  But what can’t be argued is that fantasy soccer would benefit from American fantasy sports’ draft format where each player can only belong to one team.  

Every fantasy soccer league I’ve been able to find – and I’ve searched high and low – uses what I’ll call a salary cap format.  Under this format, you can select any combination of players so long as their cumulative “prices” are less than or equal to each team’s total salary allotment.  What’s important to note about this format is that you can select the same players as other people in your league as long as you don’t go over your salary cap.

The problem this creates a couple of problems:

#1  - Fantasy soccer lacks variety.  Because you can select the same players as your competitors, many teams end up with the same players.  If a relatively unknown (and therefore cheap) player gets off to fast start, maybe scoring ten goals in the first half of the season, you can count on about half of your league picking this player up.  The result is that there is little variety in teams and it is difficult to distinguish yourself from your competitors.

#2 – Fantasy soccer doesn’t reward knowledge and foresight like fantasy football and baseball.  In live draft formats, doing your homework and identifying players primed for a breakout year pays dividends because selecting that player blocks other teams from picking up a breakout player.

Quite simply, live draft formats create a better, more engaging brand of fantasy sports.  If anyone knows of such a soccer fantasy league, please let me know.   

Translating Soccer Songs

Often when I’m watching soccer and my family is in the room, they’ll ask me, what are they singing?  My answer is always the same, “no idea.”  For me, neither raised in soccer culture nor fully indoctrinated, the singing I hear when I watch soccer or at the matches I’ve attended is not so much about the lyrics.  I know they’re significant but what seems more important is how they’re being sung. “Rabid” basketball fans don’t belt out “DE-FENSE”, much less entire songs as loud as soccer teams’ supporters sing these songs.

But, really, what are they singing?  Here are a few of the classics with a synopsis:

Liverpool F.C. - You’ll Never Walk Alone 

When you walk through a storm
Hold your head up high
And don't be afraid of the dark

At the end of the storm
Is a golden sky
And the sweet silver song of the lark

Walk on through the wind
Walk on through the rain
Though your dreams be tossed and blown

Walk on walk on with hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone
You'll never walk alone

When you walk through a storm
Hold your head up high
And don't be afraid of the dark

At the end of the storm
Is a golden sky
And the sweet silver song of the lark

Walk on through the wind
Walk on through the rain
Though your dreams be tossed and blown

Walk on walk on with hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone
You'll never walk

You'll never walk
You'll never walk alone.

Translation: No song is as widely famous and as closely identified with one club as this song. Plenty of inspiration and support.  A little sappy, no?

West Ham United – I’m Forever Blowing Bubbles

I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.

I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes,
I'm building castles high.
They're born anew, their days are few,
Just like a sweet butterfly.
And as the daylight is dawning,
They come again in the morning!

CHORUS

When shadows creep, when I'm asleep,
To lands of hope I stray!
Then at daybreak, when I awake,
My bluebird flutters away.
"Happiness, you seem so near me,
Happiness, come forth and cheer me!"

CHORUS

Translation: Like I said, it’s not so much important what they’re singing. It’s more important how it’s sung and that it’s their song.  Maybe this song has deeper lyrical significance I’m not aware of.

Sevilla F.C. – Himno del Centenario

Cuentan las lenguas antiguas

Que un 14 de octubre nació una ilusión

Su madre fue Sevilla y le prestó su nombre

Y para defenderlo le dio a una afición

Ejemplo de Sevilla mía

Familia roja y blanca del Sánchez Pizjuan

Un corazón que late gritando Sevilla

Llevándolo en volandas por siempre a ganar

Y es por eso que hoy vengo a verte

sevillista seré hasta la muerte

La giralda presume orgullosa

De ver al Sevilla en el Sánchez Pizjuan

Mi Sevilla Sevilla Sevilla

Aquí estamos contigo Sevilla

Compartiendo la gloria en tu escudo

Orgullo del fútbol de nuestra ciudad

Dicen que nunca se rinde

Y el arte de su fútbol no tiene rival

Hace 100 años lleva mi equipo luchando

Y abanderando el nombre de nuestra ciudad

Ejemplo de Sevilla mía

Familia roja y blanca del Sánchez Pizjuan

Un corazón que late gritando Sevilla

Llevándolo en volandas por siempre a ganar

y es por eso que hoy vengo a verte

sevillista seré hasta la muerte

La giralda presume orgullosa

De ver al Sevilla en el Sánchez Pizjuan

Mi Sevilla Sevilla Sevilla

Aquí estamos contigo Sevilla

Compartiendo la gloria en tu escudo

Orgullo del fútbol de nuestra ciudad

y es por eso que hoy vengo a verte

sevillista seré hasta la muerte

La giralda presume orgullosa

De ver al Sevilla en el Sánchez Pizjuan

Mi Sevilla Sevilla Sevilla

Aquí estamos contigo Sevilla

Compartiendo la gloria en tu escudo

Orgullo del fútbol de nuestra ciudad

OoOoOoOoOo… 

Translation: Sevilla FC is the best.  I’ll support Sevilla until I die.  History, beauty, loyalty, and pretty catchy too.

Picking Sides

I cannot speak for the fairer sex but amongst men, which sports teams you support is a major source of identity and socialization.  Yet, for many, this identification is not a choice but rather a result of where you grow up or who your father or mother support. 

But for anyone without a natural choice for a team in a given sport, say a Californian teenager interested in European soccer, how does one choose? 

There are a few factors that are usually considered:

Personal connection

Maybe you went on a vacation to London or maybe your cousin lives in Barcelona.  What’s important here is that you’ve established a personal emotional connection with a club and its city.  For example, I studied abroad in Seville.  My host family supported Sevilla FC and would disown me (if a house mother can do that) if I was to support cross-town rival Real Betis or probably any other club for that matter.  Getting to know the people and the city is as good a reason as any to support a given soccer team.

What kind of fan are you?

There are all kinds of sports fans. I think for the purposes of this discussion, there’s only question that really matters: do I need to win? If you can’t imagine supporting a team without a shot at winning it all, you’re going to have about 5 choices in English soccer and 2 in Spanish soccer.  Sure, many more teams have shots at winning league cups and there are always moral victories (we didn’t get relegated!). But you need to know what you’re getting yourself into and to be blunt, if you’re willing to suffer.

Aesthetic Value

If you’re going to dedicate hours to watching a certain team, you better enjoy what you’re looking at.  For me, specifically regarding soccer, this means the team’s style of play.  Many enjoy the intricate passing and ball movement of Barcelona and Arsenal.  Others prefer the balanced attack of Manchester United. Some even praise the defensive anti-soccer approach of just about every team in the Italian Serie A.

Aesthetics can also mean things like the team’s uniforms, their stadium, or even the weather where they play.  These might seem trivial and many of these components are probably evaluated subconsciously, but nobody wants to spend their weekend mornings watching 11 guys in these uniforms for 90 mins.

These are just a few things a newcomer might and should consider in choosing a side.  I know there are countless.  What are some other reasons to support or not support a team?